THE COALITION WILL BE SPENDING MORE THAN LABOUR WHEN THEY CAME TO POWER IN 1997

South Dorset Liberal Democrats <info@southdorsetlibdems.org.uk>

THE COALITION WILL BE SPENDING MORE THAN LABOUR WHEN THEY CAME TO POWER IN 1997 -

October 27, 2010 7:01 PM
By Andrew Rawnsley in Observer 24.10. 10

The thrust of Labour's response has been to accuse the coalition of pillaging public spending because they are activated by a Tory lust to eviscerate the state. "This was a spending review driven by ideology," says Ed Miliband.

There are plenty of Tories who do see shrinking the state as a goal in itself. For some of them, that is what they came into politics to do just as Labour's new leader came into politics to expand the state.

I'm doubtful that this line of attack from Labour will work. For the charge to stick, Labour needs David Cameron and Nick Clegg to look like ideological crazies and, whatever Labour may wish, the prime minister and his Lib Dem partner simply don't come over that way.

Nor does the evidence support the Labour critique. The great squeeze will reduce public spending from its current level of 48% of GDP to about 41% by 2014-2015. That is above, not below, the postwar average for Britain. It is fairly typical of a European welfare state. Spending will fall to about the same proportion of GDP as in 2007-08 when Ed Miliband was a senior aide at the Treasury to Gordon Brown. In cash terms, at the end of the four years, the government will be spending 6% more than it does now. In real terms, the coalition will be spending more than when New Labour came to power in 1997.

That won't be much solace to anyone who relies on a public service that is going to be reduced nor to anyone working for the government who is fearful of losing their position. The forecast job losses in the public sector are 490,000 over four years. That is a big number, there's no doubt about it. But even if every one of those jobs does disappear, the state will still be employing about 200,000 more people than it was when Labour came to power. I wish Labour luck in trying to paint Dave'n'Nick as the evil twin brothers of Sarah Palin. They will need luck because the facts don't support the argument.