Polls Point To South Dorset As 3 Way Marginal
February 8, 2005 9:56 AM
Analysis of opinion polls from January 2005 shows the Liberal Democrats scoring more highly than in any January of an election year since political polling began.
Looking at all published polls, the party's average poll rating (21.6%) in January 2005 was around eight points above the average Lib Dem rating in January 2001 (13.7%) and nine points above the party's average in January 1997 (12.4%).
By contrast Labour are down from an average of 50.6% in 1997 and 48.7% in 2001 to just 37.1% and the Tories score an average of just 32.1%, exactly the same as in January 2001 and just 0.4% up on their 31.7% average in January 1997.
Applying these figures to the project the probable outcome of the General Election in South Dorset including factoring in the poll topping performance of the local Lib Dems in the 2004 council elections, South Dorset becomes a 3 way marginal - with Labour 3rd!
"These are just polling figures" commented Graham Oakes, "however they are very encouraging. They become even more interesting if you allow for a reasonable UKIP vote"
"Frankly it's too close to call".
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